World War I Was Not Caused by an Assassination.

Why the standard explanation of World War I doesn’t add up

World War I would change the world, but the conflict is often simplified to fit a simple narrative for academic curricula. Some simplifications are detrimental to understanding the conflict; among these simplifications is the question of who started the war. Many students become confused as textbooks start in 1914 with one cause and end in 1918, blaming a country that was not mentioned in the initial event that supposedly led to the war. The question is a complex one and should be given a proper explanation. This is a concise yet accurate explanation, making it easy to read in a few minutes.

For centuries, the German-speaking regions of Europe were loosely united as the Holy Roman Empire. But this loose unification collapsed when Napoleon pressured Austria to dissolve the Holy Roman Empire in 1806. After that point, the two prominent German-speaking countries of Prussia and Austria fought for influence over their smaller, less influential German neighbors. Since the reign of Frederick the Great, the soldier king of Prussia, Prussia had been known for its military prowess, and in 1866, Prussia’s military reputation was solidified as Prussia won a war against Austria to gain influence over the smaller German states. In 1870, the French declared war on Prussia, and the Prussian government made the war about unifying against a common enemy of the German states. Prussia won, and the German Empire was declared in 1871 at Versailles. The German Empire took territorial concessions from France, known as Alsace-Lorraine. European leaders were now concerned about a strong, industrial, high-population Germany in the center of Europe. Ever since Napoleon's defeat, the European states had decided to create the Concert of Europe so that no one state could become more powerful than the others, to keep the peace and the status quo. Germany’s creation already started concerns about the balance of power, and various leaders tried to maintain the system; among these leaders was Germany’s new chancellor, Otto von Bismarck, who wanted to keep peace in Europe. After German unification, Germany sought to integrate into Europe by gaining colonies and forming alliances, which by the 1890s became a “we fear Russian power and 

encirclement” alliance.

The Kaiser dismissed Bismarck in 1890 and did not renew the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia, which had committed both states to neutrality if the other entered a war, with limited exceptions. Bismarck’s dismissal was a loss for the emerging situation in Europe, as Bismarck was a very calculated man in an increasingly complicated European situation. The fear of Russia only increased in the years following Bismarck’s absence. The Kaiser wanted to secure Germany’s place on the world stage, which led to a naval arms race with Britain starting in 1896. In the years after 1895, Germany increasingly challenged influence in the British and French colonial territories in Africa. Germany supported Austrian interests diplomatically in the Balkans during the Balkan Wars from 1912 to 1913. Leading up to 1914, Germany caused disruption within the delicate European order by its creation, territorial gain from France, arms race with Britain, and colonial interference with both British and French colonies.

Map of Europe before World War I

When Franz Ferdinand was assassinated by Serbian nationalists, the Austrians wanted to do something about Serbia. Germany issued Austria-Hungary a ‘blank cheque,’ signaling that Berlin would support Vienna’s actions regardless of the consequences.  This potential invasion of Serbia concerned the Russians, as the Russians have, historically and to this day, seen themselves as protectors of the South Slavs and Orthodox Christianity. So while it might have taken the Russian military a long time to mobilize, the French army also began mobilizing, as they were Russia's allies. Then the British started mobilizing, following the invasion of Belgium, and before people realized, World War I kicked off in earnest, and unlike what people believed at the time, it would not end by Christmas. It would last four years with numerous deaths, and soon would change the world forever.

World War I has often become a smaller footnote in history, overshadowed by the even more destructive Second World War and the looming fear of nuclear annihilation during the Cold War. Yet it remains one of the most complex and misunderstood conflicts in modern history, both in its scale and in its profound influence on the events that followed. World War I was not caused by a single assassination or a single nation, but by decades of structural change, mounting fear, and repeated miscalculation—none of which can be understood if the story begins in 1914. When responsibility for such a complex system failure was concentrated almost entirely on Germany, the resulting resentment and instability helped create the conditions for an even broader, more devastating conflict to emerge only a generation later.